It’s only been a day and already two reports by the CBC raise concerns. The first, that a Canadian soldier had raised concerns that Afghan soldier routinely executed detainees. The second, that a soldier assigned to question an Afghan prisoner later expressed concern Afghan forces had abused the detainee before the questioning took place. Did Harper, Soudas and crew fail to consider that the press would be all over these documents? Is it possible that they haven’t bothered to dig into this themselves to see if indeed there is something to the Opposition’s allegations? Surely if you’re going to dump documents you’d take the time to read them all and ensure that they don’t contain anything that would raise more issues.

The Prime Minister is always on hand when there is a good news story to be told. Tonight he’s attending the state dinner held by the Queen of Denmark while Minister Jim addresses the assembly in Copenhagen to tell them that Canada will be the rogue of the developed nations, supporting the interests of oil companies over the future of the planet.

This is the first gathering of world leaders to develop and sign a treaty since Versailles and the Prime Minister sent a subordinate to speak while he hides at a non-public event. Why did he even go to Copenhagen? There MUST be a Tim Horton’s opening in Canada somewhere!

Has the Prime Minister undergone a conversion on the road to Damascus?  Is he now a socialist? Or is he about to enact measures that he does not believe in? For his core support, neo cons whose intention to shift the country towards the right, the question will be simplified: Is he a turncoat or a hippocrit? For surely, those who believe that government intervention doesn’t work and in fact makes things worse will be utterly disappointed in their man today.  Evidence of concern appeared last week, when the Fraser Institute released their recommendations for the budget: Tax cuts and spending cuts and no money for stimulus.

The industry analysts and economists, both union and corporate would have us believe that this unprecedented drop in sales of automobiles is the result of a cyclical downturn, perhaps compounded by the inability for dealers to seek credit to fill their lots with product and customers to purchase new vehicles. They maintain that the big three have a viable restructuring already underway and that they just need some cash in the form of a short term loan in order to get by until the market rebounds. This kind of assessment demonstrates the vision of an ostrich under threat.

I don’t know about you but I’ve not seen big three dealerships with empty lots. Nor do I believe that people are not buying vehicles because they can’t get the loan. The fact is, sales of cars and light trucks has been fueled by a side-effect of the overheated housing market. Property purchased for a low 5 figure sum in the 70′s was worth a mid to high six figures in the height of the bubble and those who chose not to up size their accommodation found themselves with a lot of equity on paper. With cheap, easy credit available many elected to improve their standard of life with the purchase of an expensive vehicle or two, leveraged against the value of their home.

Reuters reported the sharpest year over year drop for any month on record, dating back to 1942, the first sign of an impending automotive decline on May 23 of 2008. Gasoline in the US had just reached $3.79 a gallon.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – In a sign that Americans are curbing their driving in the face of record-high gasoline prices, data released on Friday showed highway miles driven in March fell 4.3 percent from a year earlier, the first March decline since the last major oil shock in the late 1970s.

In August, 2008, Climate Progress reported:

June 2008 saw another sharp drop in vehicle miles traveled (aka VMT) according to the Federal Highway Administration’s monthly report on “Traffic Volume Trends.”

Americans drove 4.7 percent less, or 12.2 billion miles fewer, in June 2008 than June 2007 — beating the record-setting drop of March (see here).

In October of 2008, the Wall Street Journal reported the decline extended the monthly fall in driving to 10 months. Again, this is the largest year over year decline ever recorded.

Drivers in the U.S. traveled 15 billion miles less in August, or 5.6%, compared to the same month last year, the Department of Transportation said Friday.

“The decline is putting new pressure on the way road, bridge and transit projects are funded at a time of record growth in transit ridership, showing the need for a new approach for funding transportation construction,” Transport Secretary Mary Peters said.

On December 12, 2008, CNN Money’s Aaron Smith reported:

Driving in America has undergone its most dramatic continuous decline in history, the Department of Transportation said Friday.

Americans drove 100 billion fewer miles during the 12-month period between November 2007 and October 2008 compared with the prior year, according to the DOT’s most recent data.

U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters noted that driving continued to decline even as gas prices came off their summertime peaks.

“The fact that the trend persists even as gas prices are dropping confirms that America’s travel habits are fundamentally changing,” she said in a statement.

So what can we make of this? Is the automotive downturn cyclical? Are people actually taking the bus because they can’t get a loan to buy a pickup truck? Or because the dealership does not have any in stock? Without a doubt the current credit crunch has exacerbated the situation of the big three at a time when they are not selling cars and are still stuck in an old and tired business model. But the math is telling. There is currently capacity in North America for the manufacture of some 25 million vehicles, annually. And the current market seems to be about 10 million and declining. If we bailout the big three, what are they going to do? Keep building cars?

GM has already answered that question. They are closing 20 plants for at least 6 weeks, as reported by Huffington Post. Even mighty Toyota is in slowdown mode with an extended Christmas break and short weeks in January. It’s plain to see that a good chunk, possibly as much as a half to two-thirds of North American car plants must close for good.

So if the car plants close and more than half the auto-workers, both blue and white collared are left without a job the question that begs is what do we actually get for the bailout money? Who benefits if we still end up with massive unemployment? Shareholders? Company brass? That reeks of socialism for the elite, in my humble opinion.

Politicians must carefully weigh the cost-benefit analysis of propping up this dying breed before wasting tax dollars that could be directed at infrastructure projects (perhaps it might be wise to invest in rail seeing as it is growing in popularity) and  start-ups and entrepreneurs who will create modern, new jobs with a potential to jump-start renewed growth of our economy.

The right has united. And they seem to have avoided serious cracks in the resulting mixture. Even together they only muster support from a third of those who bother to vote. But the Liberals and the NDP split the remainder of what is left after the Bloc takes their share of seats in Quebec.  So neither can raise enough support to successfully counter the Conservatives.

If the Liberals united with the NDP they could draw upon the vision of social-democrat dreamers in the New Democrats and temper that with the conservative economists in the Liberal fold. The Liberals after all, have historically been the best stewards of the Canadian economy. New Democrats have traditionally embraced the needs of citizens. We would not have our cherished universal health care without New Democrats.  Granted, there would likely be some right-leaning Liberals who would defect to the Conservatives, in the event of such a merger. But that would be countered by some pickup from the Bloc, and possibly the Green Party.

What would you call the new party? You can’t use the word Liberal. That brand is sufficiently tarnished. This is especially so in Quebec and Alberta. But Liberals outnumber New Democrats and besides, New New Democrats just sounds stupid. I’d like to suggest The Democratic Party of Canada as a name for the new party. There just so happens to be a new and very popular center-left president of our neighbour to the south and he hails from a Democratic party. And it would be very difficult for a Conservative to call Democratic Party members undemocratic.

What surprised me most in the reaction of Canadians to the recent turmoil in the House of Commons is the expressed dismay over Harper’s bullying and the support for a cooperative effort between the Liberals and NDP. Though that support was clearly qualified by a rejection of any “old guard” leadership of said coalition. Canadians want a new center-left government and presented with such an alternative, many who have chosen to abstain from voting would show up at the polls. Uniting the New Democrats and the Liberals under a new banner, with a new constitution and modern voting policies, one vote per member, I truly believe would be embraced by Canadians across the country.

Dion has yet to fall on his sword but expect that to happen in the next week or so, as he meets with other Liberals and finds the degree to which his support has evaporated. A Liberal leadership campaign and convention are a certainty. Dion is subject to a mandatory review regardless, within six months of the election, one he is certain to lose. Were he to wait for that review and force a subsequent convention, delays and expense, the party will suffer. Dion is intelligent and he is not an egotist. He will leave for the good of the cause.

So who to pick? Rae is ready. So too is Ignatieff. Both have been preparing for just such an event as took place last night. They have teams already in place to take up the cause for their respective campaigns. Gerard Kennedy will likely throw his hat in the ring. Recall, he was the king maker who made it possible for Dion’s leadership. This fact may come back to haunt him. Joe Volpe may want to give it another shot but he didn’t even keep his seat last night so he’s looking for a job today. Martha Hall Findlay and Caroline Bennet will probably be tempted to mount campaigns. I’m not sure Ken Dryden will be interested. These were the players last time around.

It is important to consider requirements. Key among these is the ability to win an election. To do that a Liberal leader is going to have to deliver Ontario votes. He or she will have to expand on the only good news for the Liberals last night, the federalist Quebec votes that went their way. So no sponsorship baggage would be a plus. A leader would have to be able to appeal to voters in all constituencies across Canada to elect a government which can claim to represent all Canadians. It would help if said leader could claim to have run a successful government previously. To have dealt with tough times and made a go of it. Above all, the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada will have to be a good communicator.

I say draft McGuinty. He has no federal party baggage. He has a successful track record. He won historic back to back majorities for the Ontario Liberals. I think he can deliver Ontario. He has a record of reaching out to other provinces, collaborating with Quebec, even. He has all the right acoutrements, an attractive wife who teaches, photogenic family, and a large personal support network. He is fluent in french. He is an excellent communicator. And he has a powerful political machine. More than any of the aforementioned potential candidates I think Dalton McGuinty is the best hope for the Liberal Party of Canada.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says the number of residential property sales declined 42.9 per cent in September from a year earlier.

The number of residential properties sold in Metro Vancouver dropped from 2,776 in September 2007 to 1,585 in September 2008, according to a report released Thursday by the board.

The number of new listings continued to rise, up 28.8 per cent from the same month last year.

Harper maintains that our economy is strong and immune to the problems being experienced stateside. He’ll live to eat those words.