Last night Canadians elected another Conservative minority government. Voting in record low numbers with a 58% turnout, it is fair to say Harper was re-elected through voter apathy. Although the Conservatives increased their seat count they will be considering whether or not the time has come to replace Harper, with his failure to deliver a majority after three attempts. The bigger question is what will happen to the Liberals. Having won only 76 seats, Dion is not expected to survive a leadership review. Indeed, the knives came out before the complete results had come in, before even the leaders concession speeches. Reporters began peppering Bob Rae with questions about his ambitions for the party leadership as he mounted the podium to thank his supporters.
Dion has yet to fall on his sword but expect that to happen in the next week or so, as he meets with other Liberals and finds the degree to which his support has evaporated. A Liberal leadership campaign and convention are a certainty. Dion is subject to a mandatory review regardless, within six months of the election, one he is certain to lose. Were he to wait for that review and force a subsequent convention, delays and expense, the party will suffer. Dion is intelligent and he is not an egotist. He will leave for the good of the cause.
So who to pick? Rae is ready. So too is Ignatieff. Both have been preparing for just such an event as took place last night. They have teams already in place to take up the cause for their respective campaigns. Gerard Kennedy will likely throw his hat in the ring. Recall, he was the king maker who made it possible for Dion’s leadership. This fact may come back to haunt him. Joe Volpe may want to give it another shot but he didn’t even keep his seat last night so he’s looking for a job today. Martha Hall Findlay and Caroline Bennet will probably be tempted to mount campaigns. I’m not sure Ken Dryden will be interested. These were the players last time around.
It is important to consider requirements. Key among these is the ability to win an election. To do that a Liberal leader is going to have to deliver Ontario votes. He or she will have to expand on the only good news for the Liberals last night, the federalist Quebec votes that went their way. So no sponsorship baggage would be a plus. A leader would have to be able to appeal to voters in all constituencies across Canada to elect a government which can claim to represent all Canadians. It would help if said leader could claim to have run a successful government previously. To have dealt with tough times and made a go of it. Above all, the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada will have to be a good communicator.
I say draft McGuinty. He has no federal party baggage. He has a successful track record. He won historic back to back majorities for the Ontario Liberals. I think he can deliver Ontario. He has a record of reaching out to other provinces, collaborating with Quebec, even. He has all the right acoutrements, an attractive wife who teaches, photogenic family, and a large personal support network. He is fluent in french. He is an excellent communicator. And he has a powerful political machine. More than any of the aforementioned potential candidates I think Dalton McGuinty is the best hope for the Liberal Party of Canada.